The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology on Monday said that the possibility of the “Big One” earthquake to strike Metro Manila increases as time moves closer to 2058.
Phivolcs Director Teresito Bacolcol, on ANC’s Headstart, explained that while it is impossible to predict the exact time the earthquake will strike the overpopulated Metro Manila, its estimate may be known based on its recurrence interval.
The “Big One” is the 7.2 magnitude earthquake predicted to bring catastrophic destruction in Metro Manila upon a big movement in the West Valley Fault, which traverses Quezon City, Marikina, Pasig, Makati, Taguig, and Muntinlupa, and also the provinces of Bulacan, Rizal, Cavite, and Laguna.
The West Valley Fault’s last major movement was recorded 1658. Based on the lower boundary of its 400 to 600 years of recurrence interval, Bacolcol said its next movement may possibly happen earlier or later than 2058.
It could also happen 600 years past 1658, which will be around the year 2258.
“That means that as we get closer to 2058, the probability of this 7.2 recurring is tumataas,” he said.
“Of course, may uncertainty yan, give or take several decades. It could happen earlier, that’s the reason why we’re saying that we’re right for the big one,” he added. — Report from Marilyn Cahatol, ABS-CBN News
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